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0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
PoliticsGeopoliticsclose

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Ends Sep 30, 2026 10:59Last updated 2026-09-17 21:42:24
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

October 31 $1.4K Vol.
25% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 24.5¢ Buy No 75.5¢
September 30 $55.9K Vol.
13% ▼ 2%
Buy Yes 13.0¢ Buy No 87.0¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Sep 30, 2026 10:59
Display type
threshold ladder
Source rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..??
The current leading outcome is July 31 at approximately 100.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Sep 30, 2026 10:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.