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Brazil Presidential Election
PoliticsGlobal ElectionsBrazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Ends Oct 4, 2026 07:00Last updated 2026-09-17 19:28:24
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro $10.85M Vol.
54% ▼ 0.4%
Buy Yes 54.1¢ Buy No 45.9¢
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva $11.18M Vol.
45%
Buy Yes 44.5¢ Buy No 55.5¢
Renan Santos
Renan Santos $13.60M Vol.
1% ▼ 0.3%
Buy Yes 1.3¢ Buy No 98.8¢
Romeu Zema
Romeu Zema $7.43M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.2¢ Buy No 99.9¢
Augusto Cury
Augusto Cury $4.94M Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.2¢ Buy No 99.9¢
Tarcisio de Freitas
Tarcisio de Freitas $14.08M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Eduardo Bolsonaro
Eduardo Bolsonaro $10.45M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Ratinho Júnior
Ratinho Júnior $10.44M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Michelle Bolsonaro
Michelle Bolsonaro $10.36M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Eduardo Leite
Eduardo Leite $7.99M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Ronaldo Caiado
Ronaldo Caiado $7.62M Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Fernando Haddad
Fernando Haddad $7.54M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Jair Bolsonaro
Jair Bolsonaro $7.02M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Geraldo Alckmin
Geraldo Alckmin $6.29M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Camilo Santana
Camilo Santana $5.58M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Aldo Rebelo
Aldo Rebelo $4.96M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Tereza Cristina
Tereza Cristina $4.01M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Pablo Marçal
Pablo Marçal $3.97M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Helder Barbalho
Helder Barbalho $2.41M Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Oct 4, 2026 07:00
Display type
exclusive candidates
Source rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Brazil Presidential Election?
The current leading outcome is Tarcisio de Freitas at approximately 0.1%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Oct 4, 2026 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.