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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
PoliticsGlobal ElectionsBrazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Ends Oct 4, 2026 07:00Last updated 2026-09-17 21:29:25
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

Augusto Cury
Augusto Cury $213.6K Vol.
43% ▼ 3%
Buy Yes 43.3¢ Buy No 56.7¢
Renan Santos
Renan Santos $317.2K Vol.
42% ▲ 5%
Buy Yes 41.5¢ Buy No 58.5¢
Ronaldo Caiado
Ronaldo Caiado $131.4K Vol.
14% ▼ 2%
Buy Yes 14.0¢ Buy No 86.0¢
Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro $73.2K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.2%
Buy Yes 0.9¢ Buy No 99.2¢
Romeu Zema
Romeu Zema $54.4K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.8¢ Buy No 99.3¢
Pablo Marçal
Pablo Marçal $65.9K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.8¢
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva $52.2K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.8¢
Ratinho Júnior
Ratinho Júnior $104.2K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Eduardo Bolsonaro
Eduardo Bolsonaro $46.2K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Fernando Haddad
Fernando Haddad $23.2K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Michelle Bolsonaro
Michelle Bolsonaro $20.8K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Tarcisio de Freitas
Tarcisio de Freitas $16.8K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Jair Bolsonaro
Jair Bolsonaro $15.8K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Camilo Santana
Camilo Santana $13.1K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Geraldo Alckmin
Geraldo Alckmin $11.8K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Aldo Rebelo
Aldo Rebelo $9.9K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Eduardo Leite
Eduardo Leite $9.4K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Tereza Cristina
Tereza Cristina $4.1K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
Helder Barbalho
Helder Barbalho $3.5K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Oct 4, 2026 07:00
Display type
exclusive candidates
Source rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place?
The current leading outcome is Renan Santos at approximately 41.5%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Oct 4, 2026 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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