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China Annual GDP Growth 2026
EconomyGDPMacro Indicators

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

Ends Jan 31, 2027 07:00Last updated 2026-09-17 21:26:25
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

4.0–5.0% $223.7K Vol.
90%
Buy Yes 89.5¢ Buy No 10.5¢
5.0–6.0% $80.9K Vol.
6% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 5.8¢ Buy No 94.2¢
3.0–4.0% $81.5K Vol.
1% ▲ 0.1%
Buy Yes 1.2¢ Buy No 98.9¢
9.0%+ $117.6K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 1.0¢ Buy No 99.1¢
2.0–3.0% $45.8K Vol.
<1% ▲ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.4¢ Buy No 99.6¢
6.0-7.0% $87.9K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.2¢ Buy No 99.9¢
1.0–2.0% $75.5K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.2¢ Buy No 99.9¢
<1.0% $68.1K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.2¢ Buy No 99.9¢
7.0–8.0% $65.4K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢
8.0–9.0% $54.8K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.4%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 31, 2027 07:00
Display type
exclusive candidates
Source rules
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for China Annual GDP Growth 2026?
The current leading outcome is 4.0–5.0% at approximately 89.5%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 31, 2027 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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