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Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?
PoliticsGeopoliticsDiaz-Canel

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

Ends Jan 1, 2027 11:59Last updated 2026-09-17 21:38:27
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

December 31 $29.3K Vol.
4%
Buy Yes 4.0¢ Buy No 96.0¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 1, 2027 11:59
Display type
threshold ladder
Source rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify. Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...??
The current leading outcome is June 30 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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