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Gemini 4.0 released by...?
TechAIGemini 3

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

Ends Dec 1, 2026 11:59Last updated 2026-09-17 19:41:26
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

November 30 $9.0K Vol.
91% ▲ 2%
Buy Yes 90.5¢ Buy No 9.5¢
October 31 $21.4K Vol.
71% ▼ 7%
Buy Yes 70.5¢ Buy No 29.5¢
September 30 $320.3K Vol.
7% ▲ 1%
Buy Yes 6.5¢ Buy No 93.5¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Dec 1, 2026 11:59
Display type
threshold ladder
Source rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Gemini 4.0 released by...??
The current leading outcome is September 30 at approximately 6.5%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Dec 1, 2026 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.