Economy
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0%89.5%
5.0–6.0%5.8%
3.0–4.0%1.2%
+7 more outcomes
Economyunemploymentbls
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Feb 1, 2027 11:59
- Display type
- multi binary
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for How high will US unemployment go in 2026??
The current leading outcome is 5.5% at approximately 7.1%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Feb 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.
Related prediction markets
⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.