Contact
Log In / Sign Up

Welcome!

Unlock your personalized experience.
Sign Up
Dark Mode
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PoliticsFed RatesEconomy

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026 07:00Last updated 2026-09-17 19:35:26
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

Below 3.8%
Below 3.8% $56.9K Vol.
5% ▼ 0.9%
Buy Yes 5.4¢ Buy No 94.6¢
Below 3.9%
Below 3.9% $51.2K Vol.
5% ▲ 0.1%
Buy Yes 5.4¢ Buy No 94.7¢
Below 3.6%
Below 3.6% $6.2K Vol.
5%
Buy Yes 4.5¢ Buy No 95.5¢
Below 3.7%
Below 3.7% $34.8K Vol.
4% ▼ 3%
Buy Yes 3.5¢ Buy No 96.5¢
Below 3.5%
Below 3.5% $43.0K Vol.
2% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 2.4¢ Buy No 97.6¢
Below 2.0%
Below 2.0% $564 Vol.
2%
Buy Yes 1.7¢ Buy No 98.4¢
Below 3.0%
Below 3.0% $7.5K Vol.
1%
Buy Yes 1.5¢ Buy No 98.6¢
Below 1.0%
Below 1.0% $40.7K Vol.
1% ▼ 0.4%
Buy Yes 1.2¢ Buy No 98.8¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Dec 31, 2026 07:00
Display type
multi binary
Source rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027??
The current leading outcome is Below 3.8% at approximately 5.4%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Dec 31, 2026 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

Related prediction markets

⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.