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How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
OtherNatural DisastersEarthquakes

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027 11:59Last updated 2026-09-17 21:21:23
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

14–16 $188.7K Vol.
50%
Buy Yes 50.0¢ Buy No 50.0¢
17–19 $292.7K Vol.
26% ▲ 0.5%
Buy Yes 25.5¢ Buy No 74.5¢
11–13 $417.5K Vol.
14% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 14.5¢ Buy No 85.5¢
20+ $68.5K Vol.
6% ▲ 0.1%
Buy Yes 6.4¢ Buy No 93.6¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 1, 2027 11:59
Display type
exclusive candidates
Source rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026??
The current leading outcome is 11–13 at approximately 14.5%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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