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How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
PoliticsGeopoliticsstrike

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027 11:59Last updated 2026-09-17 19:36:24
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

8
8 $320.4K Vol.
66% ▲ 0.8%
Buy Yes 65.8¢ Buy No 34.3¢
9
9 $122.7K Vol.
30% ▼ 1%
Buy Yes 29.8¢ Buy No 70.3¢
10
10 $30.7K Vol.
2% ▲ 0.1%
Buy Yes 2.4¢ Buy No 97.6¢
11
11 $29.6K Vol.
2% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 1.8¢ Buy No 98.2¢
12
12 $50.2K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.7¢ Buy No 99.3¢
13
13 $103.4K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.7¢ Buy No 99.4¢
15+
15+ $130.9K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.8¢
14
14 $152.4K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.2¢ Buy No 99.8¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 1, 2027 11:59
Display type
exclusive candidates
Source rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026??
The current leading outcome is 6 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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