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How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
EconomyCPI Releasefederal reserve

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027 06:59Last updated 2026-09-17 20:05:29
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

2 (50 bps) $110.4K Vol.
67% ▲ 22%
Buy Yes 66.5¢ Buy No 33.5¢
1 (25 bps) $82.2K Vol.
19% ▼ 29%
Buy Yes 18.5¢ Buy No 81.5¢
3 (75 bps) $77.7K Vol.
15% ▲ 8%
Buy Yes 15.3¢ Buy No 84.8¢
4 (100 bps) $35.4K Vol.
2% ▲ 0.8%
Buy Yes 1.6¢ Buy No 98.5¢
5+ (125+ bps) $30.7K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.2%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.8¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 1, 2027 06:59
Display type
exclusive candidates
Source rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for How many Fed rate hikes in 2026??
The current leading outcome is 0 (0 bps) at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 06:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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