Politics
Will Tim Walz resign by...?
December 313.3%
July 310.0%
January 310.0%
+1 more outcomes
PoliticsMinnesota UnrestTrump
Insurrection Act invoked by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
January 31
$487.3K Vol.
No ×
March 31
$360.7K Vol.
No ×
June 30
$79.0K Vol.
No ×
April 30
$35.6K Vol.
No ×
July 31
$3.5K Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Jan 1, 2027 11:59
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Insurrection Act invoked by...??
The current leading outcome is January 31 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.
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