Politics
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
December 318.5%
June 300.0%
PoliticsGeopoliticsRewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec
Iran leader end of 2026?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
Ali Larijani
$236.9K Vol.
No ×
Mohammad Pakpour
— Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Dec 31, 2026 07:00
- Display type
- exclusive candidates
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Iran leader end of 2026??
The current leading outcome is Mojtaba Khamenei at approximately 84.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Dec 31, 2026 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.
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