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Iran leadership change by...?
PoliticsGeopoliticsKhamenei out

Iran leadership change by...?

Ends Jul 1, 2027 10:59Last updated 2026-09-17 19:56:24
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

June 30, 2027 $315.3K Vol.
26%
Buy Yes 25.5¢ Buy No 74.5¢
December 31 $4.52M Vol.
14%
Buy Yes 14.5¢ Buy No 85.5¢
November 30 $45.1K Vol.
9%
Buy Yes 8.5¢ Buy No 91.5¢
October 31 $100.6K Vol.
6% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 5.5¢ Buy No 94.5¢
September 30 $1.10M Vol.
2% ▼ 0.4%
Buy Yes 1.6¢ Buy No 98.5¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jul 1, 2027 10:59
Display type
threshold ladder
Source rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Iran leadership change by...??
The current leading outcome is April 30 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jul 1, 2027 10:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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