Politics
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
March 3147.5%
December 3114.5%
October 313.5%
+5 more outcomes
PoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran
Israel closes its airspace by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
June 15
$5.65M Vol.
No ×
June 30
$4.82M Vol.
No ×
July 31
$3.28M Vol.
No ×
May 31
$2.51M Vol.
No ×
July 15
$1.77M Vol.
No ×
August 31
$1.56M Vol.
No ×
June 9
$1.25M Vol.
No ×
June 8
$1.10M Vol.
No ×
June 10
$1.05M Vol.
No ×
August 15
$1.01M Vol.
No ×
July 24
$821.2K Vol.
No ×
June 14
$787.3K Vol.
No ×
May 24
$570.9K Vol.
No ×
May 8
$495.2K Vol.
No ×
June 11
$452.6K Vol.
No ×
July 7
$199.6K Vol.
No ×
June 12
$147.8K Vol.
No ×
June 13
$117.3K Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Oct 1, 2026 10:59
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Israel closes its airspace by...??
The current leading outcome is June 15 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Oct 1, 2026 10:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
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