Politics
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
March 3148.5%
December 3114.5%
October 313.5%
+5 more outcomes
PoliticsGeopoliticsPeace Deal
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
June 30
$3.52M Vol.
No ×
July 31
$2.15M Vol.
No ×
May 31
$1.54M Vol.
No ×
August 31
$669.3K Vol.
No ×
April 30
$75.0K Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Jan 1, 2027 11:59
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...??
The current leading outcome is June 30 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.
Related prediction markets
⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.