Contact
Log In / Sign Up

Welcome!

Unlock your personalized experience.
Sign Up
Dark Mode
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
PoliticsGeopoliticsGaza

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Ends Jan 1, 2027 11:59Last updated 2026-09-17 19:29:24
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

December 31 $6.3K Vol.
16% ▲ 0.5%
Buy Yes 16.0¢ Buy No 84.0¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 1, 2027 11:59
Display type
threshold ladder
Source rules
On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...??
The current leading outcome is October 31 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

Related prediction markets

⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.