Politics
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$2.03K16.5%
PoliticsGeopoliticsTrump-Netanyahu
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
January 31
$717.6K Vol.
No ×
March 31, 2026
$599.5K Vol.
No ×
June 30
$512.8K Vol.
No ×
November 30
$373.2K Vol.
No ×
December 31
$363.9K Vol.
No ×
October 31
$202.3K Vol.
No ×
July 31
$58.0K Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Jan 1, 2027 11:59
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...??
The current leading outcome is January 31 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
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