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Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
PoliticsGeopoliticsTurkey

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2027 11:59Last updated 2026-09-17 19:33:24
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
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OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

$2.03K $427.0K Vol.
13% ▲ 0.5%
Buy Yes 13.0¢ Buy No 87.0¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 1, 2027 11:59
Display type
binary
Source rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027??
The current leading outcome is $2.03K at approximately 13.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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