Politics
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3093.5%
Pakistan2.6%
USA1.5%
+16 more outcomes
PoliticsGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
April 30
$17.37M Vol.
No ×
June 30
$13.46M Vol.
No ×
May 31
$11.19M Vol.
No ×
April 15
$8.45M Vol.
No ×
March 31
$7.79M Vol.
No ×
July 31
$6.27M Vol.
No ×
August 31
$5.92M Vol.
No ×
June 24
$1.12M Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Jan 1, 2027 11:59
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...??
The current leading outcome is April 30 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
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