Politics
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
307.5%
PoliticsGeopoliticsTaiwan
Lai Ching-te impeached by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
30
$1.36M Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Jan 1, 2027 11:59
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Lai Ching-te impeached by...??
The current leading outcome is 30 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
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