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Next leader out of power before 2027?
PoliticsGeopoliticsUK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2027 11:59Last updated 2026-09-17 21:42:24
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

None before 2027 $99.8K Vol.
33%
Buy Yes 32.5¢ Buy No 67.5¢
Netanyahu - Israel PM $38.4K Vol.
31% ▼ 2%
Buy Yes 30.5¢ Buy No 69.5¢
Merz - German Chancellor $13.3K Vol.
16% ▲ 2%
Buy Yes 16.2¢ Buy No 83.9¢
Lecornu - France PM $9.1K Vol.
6% ▲ 4%
Buy Yes 5.9¢ Buy No 94.2¢
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President $12.1K Vol.
3% ▼ 0.4%
Buy Yes 3.3¢ Buy No 96.8¢
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President $12.9K Vol.
3% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 2.6¢ Buy No 97.4¢
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP $11.9K Vol.
3% ▲ 1%
Buy Yes 2.5¢ Buy No 97.5¢
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President $9.0K Vol.
2% ▼ 0.4%
Buy Yes 2.3¢ Buy No 97.8¢
Sánchez - Spanish PM $8.7K Vol.
1% ▼ 0.4%
Buy Yes 1.5¢ Buy No 98.6¢
Lula da Silva - Brazil President $7.5K Vol.
1% ▼ 0.3%
Buy Yes 1.4¢ Buy No 98.7¢
Putin - Russia President $7.5K Vol.
1% ▼ 0.3%
Buy Yes 1.0¢ Buy No 99.0¢
Erdoğan - Türkiye President $11.1K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.4%
Buy Yes 0.7¢ Buy No 99.4¢
Abbas - President of Palestine $8.0K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.7¢ Buy No 99.4¢
Newsom - California Governor $5.7K Vol.
<1% ▲ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.5¢ Buy No 99.5¢
Macron - France President $10.6K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.4¢ Buy No 99.6¢
Trump - USA President $5.7K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.4%
Buy Yes 0.4¢ Buy No 99.6¢
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea $5.7K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.3%
Buy Yes 0.4¢ Buy No 99.6¢
Takaichi - Japan PM $6.1K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.4¢ Buy No 99.7¢
Sheinbaum - Mexico President $7.5K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.7¢
al-Sharaa - Syria President $9.1K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.8¢
Milei - Argentina President $8.0K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.8¢
Albanese - Australia PM $7.2K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.8¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 1, 2027 11:59
Display type
exclusive candidates
Source rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Next leader out of power before 2027??
The current leading outcome is None before 2027 at approximately 32.5%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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