Politics
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3093.5%
Pakistan2.6%
USA1.5%
+16 more outcomesPoliticsGeopoliticsVance
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
July 3
$2.48M Vol.
No ×
July 10
$1.93M Vol.
No ×
July 31
$1.74M Vol.
No ×
August 31, 2026
$1.51M Vol.
No ×
July 17
$967.8K Vol.
No ×
August 15
$502.0K Vol.
No ×
August 7
$336.9K Vol.
No ×
June 26
$117.3K Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Apr 1, 2027 06:59
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...??
The current leading outcome is July 3 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Apr 1, 2027 06:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
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