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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
PoliticsGeopoliticszelenskyy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Ends Jul 1, 2027 10:59Last updated 2026-09-17 21:38:25
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

December 31, 2027 $4.2K Vol.
70%
Buy Yes 69.5¢ Buy No 30.5¢
November 30, 2027 $831 Vol.
66%
Buy Yes 66.0¢ Buy No 34.0¢
October 31, 2027 $3.1K Vol.
64% ▼ 1%
Buy Yes 64.0¢ Buy No 36.0¢
September 30, 2027 $851 Vol.
63% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 62.5¢ Buy No 37.5¢
August 31, 2027 $242 Vol.
61% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 60.5¢ Buy No 39.5¢
July 31, 2027 $1.2K Vol.
57% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 57.5¢ Buy No 42.5¢
June 30, 2027 $150.4K Vol.
56%
Buy Yes 56.5¢ Buy No 43.5¢
May 31, 2027 $1.8K Vol.
52%
Buy Yes 51.5¢ Buy No 48.5¢
April 30, 2027 $899 Vol.
45% ▲ 2%
Buy Yes 44.5¢ Buy No 55.5¢
March 31, 2027 $71.0K Vol.
40%
Buy Yes 39.5¢ Buy No 60.5¢
February 28, 2027 $3.7K Vol.
37% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 36.5¢ Buy No 63.5¢
January 31, 2027 $22.0K Vol.
33%
Buy Yes 32.5¢ Buy No 67.5¢
December 31 $2.63M Vol.
23% ▼ 1%
Buy Yes 22.5¢ Buy No 77.5¢
November 30 $4.7K Vol.
13% ▲ 0.5%
Buy Yes 12.5¢ Buy No 87.5¢
October 31 $1.67M Vol.
8%
Buy Yes 7.5¢ Buy No 92.5¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jul 1, 2027 10:59
Display type
threshold ladder
Source rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...??
The current leading outcome is December 31 at approximately 22.5%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jul 1, 2027 10:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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