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São Paulo Governor Election Winner
SportsGlobal ElectionsBrazil

São Paulo Governor Election Winner

Ends Oct 4, 2026 07:00Last updated 2026-09-17 20:00:26
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

Tarcísio de Freitas
Tarcísio de Freitas $146.7K Vol.
98% ▲ 0.1%
Buy Yes 97.8¢ Buy No 2.3¢
Fernando Haddad
Fernando Haddad $51.5K Vol.
<1% ▲ 0.2%
Buy Yes 1.0¢ Buy No 99.1¢
Erika Hilton
Erika Hilton $23.1K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.4¢ Buy No 99.6¢
Kim Kataguiri
Kim Kataguiri $79.1K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.2¢ Buy No 99.9¢
Márcio França
Márcio França $10.7K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.1¢ Buy No 100.0¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Oct 4, 2026 07:00
Display type
exclusive candidates
Source rules
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for São Paulo Governor Election Winner?
The current leading outcome is Tarcísio de Freitas at approximately 97.8%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Oct 4, 2026 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.