Contact
Log In / Sign Up

Welcome!

Unlock your personalized experience.
Sign Up
Dark Mode
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
TechSpaceXElon Musk

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Ends Jul 1, 2027 10:59Last updated 2026-09-17 20:09:25
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

September 30 $29.1K Vol.
91% ▼ 0.7%
Buy Yes 91.1¢ Buy No 8.9¢
Super Heavy booster explodes? $37.7K Vol.
90% ▲ 0.5%
Buy Yes 89.5¢ Buy No 10.5¢
October 31 $1.9K Vol.
88% ▼ 9%
Buy Yes 88.3¢ Buy No 11.7¢
Successful splash down? $2.8K Vol.
86%
Buy Yes 86.0¢ Buy No 14.0¢
September 26 $4.8K Vol.
76% ▲ 9%
Buy Yes 75.5¢ Buy No 24.5¢
Chopsticks catch Starship? $447.2K Vol.
3% ▼ 0.7%
Buy Yes 3.3¢ Buy No 96.8¢
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? $19.2K Vol.
2% ▼ 1%
Buy Yes 1.6¢ Buy No 98.5¢
September 19 $16.2K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.2%
Buy Yes 0.6¢ Buy No 99.4¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jul 1, 2027 10:59
Display type
threshold ladder
Source rules
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14?
The current leading outcome is Chopsticks catch Starship? at approximately 3.3%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jul 1, 2027 10:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

Related prediction markets

⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.