Politics
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
3112.5%
PoliticsGeopoliticsNegotiation Topics
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
May 31
$20.54M Vol.
No ×
June 30
$4.50M Vol.
No ×
April 30
$1.16M Vol.
No ×
July 31
$655.5K Vol.
No ×
August 31
$65.8K Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Jan 1, 2027 11:59
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...??
The current leading outcome is May 31 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
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