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What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
PoliticsFed RatesFed Chair

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026 07:00Last updated 2026-09-17 21:26:24
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

4.25% $441.0K Vol.
55% ▲ 17%
Buy Yes 54.8¢ Buy No 45.3¢
≥ 4.5% $2.41M Vol.
21% ▲ 1%
Buy Yes 20.5¢ Buy No 79.5¢
4.0% $1.37M Vol.
17% ▼ 17%
Buy Yes 17.3¢ Buy No 82.7¢
3.75% $536.6K Vol.
6% ▼ 1%
Buy Yes 5.6¢ Buy No 94.5¢
3.5% $205.8K Vol.
2% ▼ 2%
Buy Yes 1.8¢ Buy No 98.2¢
2.75% $69.8K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.4¢ Buy No 99.6¢
1.25 $151.2K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.2%
Buy Yes 0.4¢ Buy No 99.6¢
3.25% $85.2K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 0.4¢ Buy No 99.6¢
≤1.0% $256.8K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.4¢ Buy No 99.7¢
2.5% $179.6K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.4¢ Buy No 99.7¢
3.0% $499.7K Vol.
<1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.7¢
2.0% $269.1K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.7¢
1.75% $153.5K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.7¢
2.25% $92.7K Vol.
<1%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.7¢
1.5% $151.1K Vol.
<1% ▲ 0.1%
Buy Yes 0.3¢ Buy No 99.8¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Dec 9, 2026 07:00
Display type
exclusive candidates
Source rules
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026??
The current leading outcome is ≥ 4.5% at approximately 20.5%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Dec 9, 2026 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.