Other
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
101.2%
OtherClimate & ScienceWeather
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
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OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Dec 31, 2026 07:00
- Display type
- exclusive candidates
- Source rules
- This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record??
The current leading outcome is 5 at approximately 0.2%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Dec 31, 2026 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
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