Politics
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won
PL84.0%
MDB13.1%
UNIÃO1.3%
+9 more outcomesPoliticsGlobal ElectionsBrazil
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
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OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Oct 4, 2026 07:00
- Display type
- multi binary
- Source rules
- General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff??
The current leading outcome is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at approximately 96.3%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Oct 4, 2026 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.
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