Politics
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
December 316.5%
January 90.0%
January 310.0%
PoliticsJames ComeyTrump
Who will be arrested before 2027?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
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OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- —
- Display type
- multi binary
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Who will be arrested before 2027??
The current leading outcome is Anthony Fauci at approximately 8.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
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