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Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
PoliticsTrump

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2027 11:59Last updated 2026-09-17 17:58:23
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

Dan Scavino $137 Vol.
29% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 29.1¢ Buy No 70.9¢
Tom Homan $243 Vol.
27%
Buy Yes 26.5¢ Buy No 73.5¢
Kristi Noem $97.8K Vol.
25% ▼ 8%
Buy Yes 24.6¢ Buy No 75.4¢
Howard Lutnick $94.5K Vol.
24% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 24.0¢ Buy No 76.0¢
Susie Wiles $55.8K Vol.
24% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 24.0¢ Buy No 76.0¢
Markwayne Mullin $2.6K Vol.
24% ▼ 2%
Buy Yes 24.0¢ Buy No 76.0¢
David Sacks $9.2K Vol.
23% ▲ 2%
Buy Yes 23.5¢ Buy No 76.6¢
Kash Patel
Kash Patel $304.2K Vol.
23% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 23.0¢ Buy No 77.0¢
Pete Hegseth $126.8K Vol.
23% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 23.0¢ Buy No 77.0¢
Lee Zeldin $31.8K Vol.
21% ▼ 2%
Buy Yes 20.5¢ Buy No 79.5¢
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. $91.0K Vol.
16% ▼ 5%
Buy Yes 16.0¢ Buy No 84.0¢
Russell Vought $284 Vol.
16% ▼ 2%
Buy Yes 15.5¢ Buy No 84.5¢
John Ratcliffe $554 Vol.
14%
Buy Yes 13.5¢ Buy No 86.5¢
Stephen Miller $3.9K Vol.
12% ▼ 2%
Buy Yes 11.5¢ Buy No 88.5¢
Marco Rubio $19.8K Vol.
9% ▲ 0.5%
Buy Yes 8.5¢ Buy No 91.5¢
Scott Bessent $7.9K Vol.
9%
Buy Yes 8.5¢ Buy No 91.5¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 1, 2027 11:59
Display type
multi binary
Source rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027??
The current leading outcome is Pam Bondi at approximately 100.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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