Contact
Log In / Sign Up

Welcome!

Unlock your personalized experience.
Sign Up
Dark Mode
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
PoliticsSam bankman freidSBF

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2027 11:59Last updated 2026-09-17 18:00:28
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

Roger Stone
Roger Stone $8.7K Vol.
26%
Buy Yes 26.0¢ Buy No 74.0¢
Stefan Brodie
Stefan Brodie $2.8K Vol.
20%
Buy Yes 19.5¢ Buy No 80.5¢
Ryan Salame
Ryan Salame $32.1K Vol.
15% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 15.0¢ Buy No 85.0¢
Keonne Rodriguez
Keonne Rodriguez $17.5K Vol.
14%
Buy Yes 14.5¢ Buy No 85.5¢
Matt Gaetz
Matt Gaetz $6.4K Vol.
13% ▼ 0.5%
Buy Yes 13.0¢ Buy No 87.0¢
Donald Brodie
Donald Brodie $5.1K Vol.
11% ▲ 0.5%
Buy Yes 10.5¢ Buy No 89.5¢
Daniel Penny
Daniel Penny $508 Vol.
11%
Buy Yes 10.5¢ Buy No 89.5¢
Steve Bannon
Steve Bannon $8.1K Vol.
9%
Buy Yes 9.2¢ Buy No 90.9¢
Joe Exotic
Joe Exotic $5.4K Vol.
9%
Buy Yes 8.5¢ Buy No 91.5¢
Eric Adams
Eric Adams $1.1K Vol.
9%
Buy Yes 8.5¢ Buy No 91.5¢
Young Thug
Young Thug $4.7K Vol.
7%
Buy Yes 6.6¢ Buy No 93.5¢
Roger Ver
Roger Ver $2.8K Vol.
7% ▼ 5%
Buy Yes 6.5¢ Buy No 93.5¢
Derek Chauvin
Derek Chauvin $26.9K Vol.
6% ▲ 0.1%
Buy Yes 5.9¢ Buy No 94.2¢
Bob Menendez
Bob Menendez $295 Vol.
6% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 5.8¢ Buy No 94.3¢
Julian Assange
Julian Assange $4.3K Vol.
6%
Buy Yes 5.7¢ Buy No 94.4¢
Elizabeth Holmes
Elizabeth Holmes $3.6K Vol.
5%
Buy Yes 5.0¢ Buy No 95.1¢
Ghislaine Maxwell
Ghislaine Maxwell $25.4K Vol.
5%
Buy Yes 4.7¢ Buy No 95.4¢
Diddy
Diddy $30.9K Vol.
4% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 4.4¢ Buy No 95.7¢
Andrew Tate
Andrew Tate $1.5K Vol.
4% ▲ 0.2%
Buy Yes 4.3¢ Buy No 95.7¢
Nicolas Maduro
Nicolas Maduro $10.4K Vol.
4%
Buy Yes 4.3¢ Buy No 95.8¢
Sam Bankman-Fried
Sam Bankman-Fried $141.7K Vol.
4% ▲ 0.2%
Buy Yes 4.1¢ Buy No 96.0¢
Edward Snowden
Edward Snowden $3.2K Vol.
4%
Buy Yes 4.0¢ Buy No 96.1¢
Martin Shkreli
Martin Shkreli $31.3K Vol.
4% ▼ 1%
Buy Yes 3.9¢ Buy No 96.1¢
Antoine Massey
Antoine Massey $2.5K Vol.
4% ▲ 0.1%
Buy Yes 3.6¢ Buy No 96.4¢
Himself
Himself $13.7K Vol.
3%
Buy Yes 3.2¢ Buy No 96.8¢
Do Kwon
Do Kwon $23.6K Vol.
3%
Buy Yes 2.9¢ Buy No 97.2¢
Elon Musk
Elon Musk $53.1K Vol.
3%
Buy Yes 2.6¢ Buy No 97.4¢
Hunter Biden
Hunter Biden $5.7K Vol.
3% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 2.6¢ Buy No 97.4¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 1, 2027 11:59
Display type
multi binary
Source rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Who will Trump pardon before 2027??
The current leading outcome is Sam Bankman-Fried at approximately 4.1%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

Related prediction markets

⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.