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Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
TechAIAI Benchmarks

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Ends Oct 1, 2026 10:59Last updated 2026-09-17 21:34:24
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

1520 $262.3K Vol.
100%
Buy Yes 100.0¢ Buy No 0.1¢
1530 $22.7K Vol.
5% ▲ 0.9%
Buy Yes 4.5¢ Buy No 95.5¢
1540 $11.1K Vol.
3% ▼ 0.4%
Buy Yes 2.9¢ Buy No 97.1¢
1550 $12.0K Vol.
1% ▼ 0.1%
Buy Yes 1.1¢ Buy No 98.9¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Oct 1, 2026 10:59
Display type
threshold ladder
Source rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30??
The current leading outcome is 1520 at approximately 100.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Oct 1, 2026 10:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.