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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
PoliticsGlobal ElectionsBrazil

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026 07:00Last updated 2026-09-17 22:40:25
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
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OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? $264.5K Vol.
6% ▲ 0.4%
Buy Yes 6.5¢ Buy No 93.6¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Oct 4, 2026 07:00
Display type
binary
Source rules
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election??
The current leading outcome is Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? at approximately 6.5%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Oct 4, 2026 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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