Politics
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
3111.5%
PoliticsGeopoliticsChina
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
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OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Oct 1, 2026 10:59
- Display type
- binary
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026??
The current leading outcome is 30 at approximately 0.4%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Oct 1, 2026 10:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.
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