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Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
PoliticsGeopoliticsGlobal

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Ends Jan 1, 2027 11:59Last updated 2026-09-17 19:27:24
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
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OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

December 31, 2026 $1.67M Vol.
19% ▼ 1%
Buy Yes 18.5¢ Buy No 81.5¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 1, 2027 11:59
Display type
threshold ladder
Source rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Hamas agree to disarm by...??
The current leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at approximately 18.5%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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