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Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
PoliticsGeopoliticsLebanon

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Ends Dec 31, 2026 07:00Last updated 2026-09-17 19:32:24
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
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OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

December 31 $2.08M Vol.
10%
Buy Yes 9.5¢ Buy No 90.5¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Dec 31, 2026 07:00
Display type
threshold ladder
Source rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Hezbollah disarm by...??
The current leading outcome is December 31 at approximately 9.5%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Dec 31, 2026 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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