Politics
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland8.5%
Egypt7.4%
Jordan7.0%
+9 more outcomes
PoliticsGeopoliticsGaza
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
March 31, 2026
$325.9K Vol.
No ×
June 30
$172.9K Vol.
No ×
October 31
$100.2K Vol.
No ×
December 31
$50.7K Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Dec 31, 2025 07:00
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...??
The current leading outcome is March 31, 2026 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Dec 31, 2025 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
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