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Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
PoliticsGeopoliticsshah

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027 11:59Last updated 2026-09-17 21:31:26
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

$2.03K $11.76M Vol.
3% ▲ 0.4%
Buy Yes 3.1¢ Buy No 96.9¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 1, 2027 11:59
Display type
binary
Source rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026??
The current leading outcome is $2.03K at approximately 3.1%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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