Politics
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
$2.03K2.4%
PoliticsGeopoliticsPoland
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
June 30, 2026
$3.65M Vol.
No ×
December 31, 2025
$1.45M Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Dec 31, 2025 19:00
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Will Russia invade a NATO country by...??
The current leading outcome is June 30, 2026 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Dec 31, 2025 19:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
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