Crypto
Satoshi's identity be proven by...?
December 312.3%
July 310.0%
April 300.0%
+1 more outcomes
CryptoBitcoinSatoshi
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
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OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Jan 1, 2027 12:00
- Display type
- binary
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026??
The current leading outcome is $2.03K at approximately 4.3%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 12:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.
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