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How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
140-15978.0%
160-17910.0%
120-1397.4%
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Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
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OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Jan 1, 2028 11:59
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...??
The current leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at approximately 3.9%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2028 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.
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