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Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PoliticsGeopoliticsCuba

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027 11:59Last updated 2026-09-17 19:47:25
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

$2.03K $3.35M Vol.
7%
Buy Yes 6.5¢ Buy No 93.5¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jan 1, 2027 11:59
Display type
binary
Source rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026??
The current leading outcome is $2.03K at approximately 6.5%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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⚠ Prediction markets involve substantial risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Odds can change rapidly. This page is informational only; this website does not execute trades or hold user funds.