Politics
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 312.8%
March 310.0%
April 300.0%
PoliticsGeopoliticsVenezuela
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
January 31
$8.37M Vol.
No ×
March 31
$2.82M Vol.
No ×
December 31, 2025
$2.76M Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Mar 31, 2026 07:00
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...??
The current leading outcome is January 31 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Mar 31, 2026 07:00. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.
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