Politics
Iran coup attempt by...?
December 319.5%
June 300.0%
PoliticsGeopoliticsIran
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
PROBABILITY HISTORY
Market odds
Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES
Current probabilities
March 31
$4.55M Vol.
No ×
April 30
$2.42M Vol.
No ×
Market details
- Resolution status
- Open
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Close date
- Jan 1, 2027 11:59
- Display type
- threshold ladder
- Source rules
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current odds for Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...??
The current leading outcome is March 31 at approximately 0.0%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jan 1, 2027 11:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.
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