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Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
PoliticsGeopoliticsUkraine Map

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

Ends Jul 1, 2027 10:59Last updated 2026-09-17 21:04:25
PROBABILITY HISTORY

Market odds

Top 5 by volume
Loading market history…
OUTCOMES

Current probabilities

June 30, 2027 $3.3K Vol.
12%
Buy Yes 11.5¢ Buy No 88.5¢
December 31 $2.78M Vol.
6%
Buy Yes 5.5¢ Buy No 94.5¢

Market details

Resolution status
Open
Platform
Polymarket
Close date
Jul 1, 2027 10:59
Display type
threshold ladder
Source rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...??
The current leading outcome is December 31 at approximately 5.5%. Probabilities can change as the market updates.
When does this prediction market close?
The currently recorded end time is Jul 1, 2027 10:59. Always check the official Polymarket page for the latest market status.
Where can I trade this market?
This website provides prediction-market data and research only. Use the Polymarket button on this page to view the original market.

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